[Metaculus] Will there be reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 before 2026?
[Metaculus] Will there be reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 before 2026?
Plus
24
Ṁ38042026
20%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
Resolution criteria
This question will resolve as Yes if, after July 17, 2024, and before January 1, 2026, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reports that at least one case of human-to-human spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 has occurred globally.
Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.
Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
First confirmed human-to-human H5N1 transmission by May 1st 2025
5% chance
Will H5N1 have spread to multiple pig farms in 2024?
Will there be documented human-to-human transmission of H5N1 (bird flu) before 2026?
25% chance
Will there be more than 1,000 confirmed human cases of H5N1 bird flu in the US by the end of 2025?
7% chance
Will there be an avian flu pandemic before 2026?
10% chance
Will an H5N1 mRNA vaccine be developed and enter "late stage" human trials (or wider release) by July 2025?
36% chance
Will an Avian Influenza Virus in Humans be Declared a PHEIC before 2030? [Metaculus]
50% chance
If H5N1 pandemic occurs by 2026, what will be the confirmed case fatality rate for humans in first 3 months?
By the end of 2025, will H5N1 Bird Flu have evolved to the point where the CDC declares it a global pandemic for humans?
15% chance
Will there be 100 or more human cases of H5N1 in the US by the end of 2025?
50% chance