Will Tesla be able to mass produce humanoid robots by the end of 2027?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
Resolution criteria
The question resolves Yes if credible reports indicate Tesla has manufactured at least one thousand humanoid robots of an identical model before January 1, 2028.
Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.
Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.
1,000
3.0010% on Metaculus seems surprisingly low to me.
Fine print says
A bi-pedal robot with two arms, two legs, a head and torso
That can perform at least the basic tasks of walking, picking up objects and carrying.
These will perform tasks autonomously driven by A.I.
They should not be directly controlled by humans.
Doesn't seem anything particularly odd or extreme. I presume that sometime being controlled by humans for training but once trained being able to do things like 'walking, picking up objects and carrying' autonomously is ok.
1000 by Dec 2027 seems like plenty of time. Production suggested to reach that late 2025, so room for a 2 year slip.
Why so low?