[Metaculus] Will any of the US, EU, UK, or China have enacted a universal basic income before 2030?
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11
Ṁ1070
2030
7%
chance

Will any of the US, EU, UK, or China have enacted a universal basic income before 2030?

Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.


Resolution criteria

This question will resolve as Yes if, before January 1, 2030, a universal basic income (UBI) is enacted in the entirety of any of the US, UK, China, or any of the countries in the EU.

The method of enactment is irrelevant so long as it applies to the entirety of the country. There may be eligibility criteria or exceptions, such as excluding those who already have high incomes. It will be considered to apply to the entirety of the country if nearly every individual aged 21 and over with an income below 1,000 US dollars per month is able to receive 1,000 US dollars per month with no additional requirements (such as work requirements) and no expiration of the benefits.

Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.


Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.

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bought Ṁ30 YES

I think there's a good chance the UK will, at a super low level though

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