Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel throughout 2024?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
Resolution criteria
If Benjamin Netanyahu has remained the Prime Minister of Israel for the entire duration of calendar year 2024, this question will resolve as YES on January 1, 2025. If he ceases to be Prime Minster at any point during 2024, this question resolves NO.
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1,000
3.00Perhaps Lieberman would rather form a coalition with Ra'am than with Haredi parties.
If there is a liberal-right party run by Bennett or someone like that, it will take votes from Likud.
Israel’s war cabinet member Benny Gantz has threatened to quit the government of Benjamin Netanyahu should the prime minister fail to present a post-war plan for Gaza by June 8.
@SemioticRivalry Those tensions were short-lived though. The real question is whether there is an opportunity for an election in time to replace him. He will lose to Gantz in the next election. But the election certainly won't be held until after Rafah. On that note it quite likely won't be held until the Israelis in the North return to their homes and Hezbollah is deterred.
@Shump I put up some limit orders if you are interested - happy to increase them too after a little googling if you take some of these.
I'm betting on the basis that every time I have thought "this has to be the end of Bibi", it hasn't been.
@RobertCousineau Thanks, I think I had enough. My credence isn't actually much lower than the market.
Netanyahu is a wizard, but I do think he is running out of tricks. I was just betting on the fact that this market hasn't updated over the developments from last month. Things are shaky on mutiple fronts.
@JimAusman I don't have any access to non public information, just my read of the political situation is that there are a lot of parties incentivized to avoid elections anytime soon
@JimAusman it would probably take a 65/120 vote majority to actually remove him for procedural reasons. His original coalition had 64, and the unity government has more. Even if Ganz wants to remove him (which he might, but has not openly endorsed) he's still ten votes short and all of the 64 potential votes have strong reason not to go for it since they'd probably lose power in a new government.
Vox Future Perfect says 25 percent chance
@galaga I’m not sure that that’s actually much of an arbitrage opportunity; it’s possible that he is removed from office, then comes back before the end of the year.
@JimAusman I doubt he would win an election held in 2024, but the next election isn't scheduled until 2026 (unless he gets a no confidence votes, but that would require at least four members of his coalition to turn against him, and most of them would do much worse in a new election).
@ShakedKoplewitz Do people like Smotrich and Ben-Gvir strike you as master strategic thinkers who would never do anything bad for their own political careers? Remember when they veto'd Ra'am in the coalition and paved the way for the change government?
And do you really think if, say, Gallant, Barkat, and 2 others in Likud broke off and formed a new party, they would not make it into the Knesset, thus getting 4+ seats?
@nathanwei Ben Gvir and smotrich might, but bibi's actively appeasing them to prevent that and that's probably going to be enough for them.
Gallant and barkat I think still want to lead Likud after Bibi instead of yet another splinter party, so don't want to be seen as backstabbing him.
I don't think this is impossible to happen anyway (which is why I'm not going harder on this market), but both would be significant barriers.