Trump to impose 10% tariff on all countries in first year?
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Plus
65
Ṁ17k
Dec 31
68%
chance

Trump has claimed he will impose a 10% tariff on all countries except China, which will have a 60% tariff.

This market will resolve to YES if Trump wins the presidency, and then he imposes a 10% tariff (or greater) on at least most imports (as measured in dollar terms) to the US from all countries except China.

If Trump imposes a tariff in excess of 10%, that does count as a YES.

If Trump imposes a tariff less than 10%, that does not count.

If Trump does not win the presidency, the market resolves to NO, even if the winner imposes a tariff.

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I think we should clarify the wording on the resolution criteria. The predominant interpretation seems to be that this is referring to a majority of the sum total of tariffs from all nations (so, if the US imported $2.8 trillion of goods from all nations excluding China, then this would resolve YES if over $1.4 trillion was subject to tariffs). However, there might be an alternative interpretation, that this requires a majority of imports from each individual country to tariffed.

I believe that the best interpretation of the resolution criteria (which takes precedence over any other criteria) is that it refers to the first interpretation. ChatGPT prefers that interpretation, even when prompted to consider the alternative. Also, it would be clearly against the spirit of the market if, say, this market resolved NO if Russia and North Korea are excluded from the tariffs because they are already subject to US sanctions.

@spiderduckpig If the first interpretation is intended then the title is grossly misleading.

@ArmandodiMatteo The resolution criteria is based on the description, not the title, otherwise no complicated resolution criteria could exist

@spiderduckpig in principle yes, in practice if the description is potentially ambiguous and the title only makes sense according to one of two possible interpretations of the description, I think it's way more sensible to use the title to guess what the author meant than to ask ChatGPT to guess (but asking the author @mfow is even more sensible)

https://manifold.markets/Cactus/average-tariffs-under-trump-RppCgnISL2

move my market guys. I'd do it myself but don't want more exposure to tariff related risks

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/imports-by-country

Just to help determine what counts as "most imports" in dollar terms

sold Ṁ206 YES

byebye american power 🤣

Holding on to No, need to see this implemented...

He might exempt certain countries like Hungary in his typical mafia style..

@Siebe Hungary can’t easily opt out of retaliatory tariffs against the us though, because it’s in a trading bloc

bought Ṁ15 NO

@Siebe he did exclude russia, north korea, cuba among others from today's list lol.

bought Ṁ250 NO

We have a market for him becoming president at ~50% and enacting these heinous tariffs at 21%. So seems like this market should be 10%

oh I didn't see that market before I created this.

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