Will there be an Israel:Hezbollah ceasefire before thereโ€™s an Israel:Hamas one? ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿค๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ธ
Basic
11
แน€948
Jan 1
98.4%
chance

Context: U.S. Pushes Cease-Fire in Lebanon as Netanyahu Says Israel Will Fight On

Resolves YES if there is an at least 24hour (agreed-upon) cessation of fighting between Israeli and Lebanon/Hezbollah before such a pause in fighting in Gaza/against Hamas begins. Ties, joint ceasefires on both fronts, will Resolve NO.

If either war ends, after 24hours this will qualify as a ceasefire. War ending will be determined by the conflicts listed as a non-Ongoing status on Wikipedia: Hezbollah, Hamas.

Market will extend as needed.

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