Germany's right-wing party AfD is rising in polls. The strongest reason to vote for them seems to be current immigration policy, which the AfD wants to tighten. More precisely, it is the refugee policy for asylum seekers. While it is unlikely that the AfD will get into the government, the current favorite, CDU, is shifting their positions to the right. Thus, it seems possible that during the next legislative period 2025-2029 the government might give in to these demands.
Resolves YES if Germany's refugee policy is significantly tightened before 2030.
Resolves NO otherwise.
What does "significantly tightened" mean? A popular call is to follow Sweden's example, as they turned from one of europe's most open to a very closed country. What did they do?
Deny entry without a passport.
Reducing times for residence permits.
Denying family reunion.
Stopping allowance after some time.
If Germany adapt their policies like this, it would be significant. It should affect hundreds of thousands of people.
1,000
3.00Any tightening would most likely happen on the EU level. Therefore this will most likely resolve NO.
Some of the resolution criteria such as no allowances would be unconstitutional in Germany.
Family reunion is also codified in EU law. It is already restricted in Germany for some groups of refugees.
German asylum law is not particularly soft or hard, it is just a rich country so many people like to go there.
Fwiw, I think the resolution criteria are still quite fuzzy and so I don't feel great about Marktwse participating, and right now being the biggest "NO" holder. I think it's generally good practice to not participate if the resolution will depend significantly on the judgement of the question author.
Fair point. I added a limit order at the current price to sell off my shares if anybody wants to take them. I'm just not sure if I entered the correct value for the order.
German government is open to tightening it in EU level. It is not that concrete yet, but it doesn’t look significant enough (yet) to resolve this as YES.
If anybody wonders about the spike today: The primary reason seems to be that I boosted the question with 100Ṁ. No news event.
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Are our predictions accurate?
How do I win cash prizes?
and can't be cashed out. to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.1.00Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Are our predictions accurate?
How do I win cash prizes?
and can't be cashed out. to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.1.00