This question resolves YES if Trump imposes any tariffs on Canada during his second term that were not already in place.
This question will only resolve once tariffs are actually in effect, or when Trump's second term ends.
Update 2025-02-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Mainstream Media Confirmation Requirement
The market will resolve YES only after there is confirmation from mainstream media that goods have been sold with the tariff applied.
This evidence is required as proof that the tariff is effectively in place.
1,000
3.00Trump slaps 25% tariff on steel and aluminum imports
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/trump-steel-aluminum-canada-1.7455173?cmp=rss
Waiting for goods to be sold with the tariff applies as before.
When asked about aluminum, he responded, "aluminum, too" will be subject to the trade penalties.
Everybody else on the plane 💭 Why did you ask about aluminum, you idiot
"Trump to pause promised tariffs for 30 days after speaking with Trudeau" - CBC
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/trudeau-trump-speak-trade-war-1.7448805
They will get rescinded today according to the financial markets. No reason to spook.
@10thOfficial Canada already tried to give Trump what he said he wanted to avoid having tariffs put in place - a plan for significant increases in investment in border security, including mumble mumble fentanyl bad, back in December Government of Canada announces its plan to strengthen border security and our immigration system - Canada.ca. Also we bought a bunch of helicopters and stuff and deliberately tried to get on Fox News to show pretty pictures of being all tough on the things Trump wants toughness on, to give him a plausible public-relations win.
This isn't a case of "is Canada too dumb to give the idiot a way of backing down gracefully from his idiocy?", it's "an idiot has power in the US, and is going to do what he feels like, because he can, regardless of whether it makes sense or is good for anyone involved, buckle up".
@equinoxhq Yes, I fell for some nonsense opinion commentary, please disregard my previous comment. I can't keep up with this, it is simply crazy.
@10thOfficial the volume of
"Trump did what now? How could that possibly make sense?" to keep up with, is challenging, for sure. I want it to make sense, for Trump to be a rational actor whose actions are predictable based on his interests or world-model, someone who can be reasoned or bargained with if you understand him. But, looks to me like that's just not who Trump is. I'm guessing the retaliatory tariffs will have him throwing a temper tantrum and retaliating against the injustice of it all, which is gonna suck, but whatever, giving him what he said he wanted didn't work, and at some point the negative consequences will bite enough that he'll stop or be stopped. Or it'll be a very rough few years for everyone, but in any case, giving him what he says he wants doesn't seem to pay off - maybe that can at least be a lesson to everyone he tries to bully in future.
@10thOfficial @equinoxhq Call is concluding soon, month delay incoming. Better hold next time. More holding, less dooming. Stay off Twitter and Reddit.
@Predictor I'm not on Twitter or Reddit. I mean, I have an account on Twitter, but I rarely go there. Even if a month delay occurs, much damage has already been done, by pissing off one of America's largest trading partners and introducing a large amount of uncertainty into the business plans of any organization that trades across the border. This by itself will harm both countries, to no one's benefit.
This is 100% the Musk idea. They are creating the reasons to actually make Canada a 51st state because he has the Canadian citizenship (no natural born requirement) and therefore will be able to running for president. Also, repays debts for Trump and the Musk to Russia as they now are the aggressors like Russia and US is now sanctioned economy all over the world and dollar is not the world currency as imagined.
"Trump muses about slapping 25% tariffs on Canada Feb. 1" - CBC
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/trump-tariffs-canada-first-day-1.7435957
I would argue this market should be lower than it used it be (68%) with this news. Before, Trump was insistent about Canadian tariffs, constantly making threats. Now we have survived day 1, and he is only "musing".