By the end of 2028, will more than 50% of US trans youth live in states where best-practice medical care is banned?
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Plus
13
Ṁ639
2029
49%
chance

Currently 28% of transgender youth live in states where best-practice medical care for transgender youth is banned, as reported by LGBT MAP: https://www.lgbtmap.org/equality-maps/healthcare_youth_medical_care_bans

If the above source stops reporting data at resolution time, data from Human Rights Campaign (https://www.hrc.org/resources/attacks-on-gender-affirming-care-by-state-map) will be used, or other similarly credible source.

  • Update 2025-02-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): States Defying Orders and In-Practice Access

    • If a state law or order banning best-practice care is not effectively enforced (i.e. patients continue to have in-practice access to care), this will count as not being a ban for resolution purposes.

    • For example, if a state directs healthcare providers to continue offering treatments despite a federal order, then that state would not be considered as banning care, potentially leading to a NO resolution.

  • Update 2025-02-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Update from creator

    • The resolution will use the care standard as it existed at the time the market was created.

    • Even if a reputable medical body later changes its guidelines or deems the care no longer best-practice for minors, that change will not affect the resolution criteria.

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What are you defining as best practice? E.g. if APA publishes a revised guideline no longer recommending medical GAC for pre-pubescent children, then would state bans that do not conflict with this new guideline still count towards a yes?

@AlexBokov a source is provided and it provides a number and methodology to replicate it

Thanks for the question. For resolving this, I am going by the care standard as it existed when the question was created, even if a reputable medical body determines this type of care is no longer best-practice for minors.

Would a Federal ban on certain types of gender affirming surgery lead to a YES resolution?

@TobiasPace If states defy the orders, such that patients can in-practice still access the same care, it may resolve NO. For example, NYS is ordering NYU Langone to continue offering treatments contrary to the federal order.

@lumi Also, for the purpose of this question, in general, I am deferring to LGBT MAP's barometer unless they stop publishing.

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