Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, secures a majority of seats in the Bihar Legislative Assembly election scheduled for October-November 2025. A majority is defined as winning at least 122 out of the 243 seats. Official election results published by the Election Commission of India will serve as the primary source for resolution.

Background

The Bihar Legislative Assembly election is set to take place in late 2025, with the current assembly's term ending on November 22, 2025. The BJP, under Prime Minister Modi's leadership, is a key contender in this election. (indiatoday.in)

Considerations

Recent opinion polls indicate a complex electoral landscape. While the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), which includes the BJP, appears to have an edge over the Mahagathbandhan (Grand Alliance), the BJP's Chief Ministerial candidate is not the top choice among voters. (moneycontrol.com) Additionally, the emergence of new political entities, such as Prashant Kishor's Jan Suraaj Party, may influence voter dynamics. (scroll.in)