Will the Democrats win a majority in the House of Representatives in the 2024 elections?

Crystal

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Ṁ1.1m

resolved Nov 15

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Resolves to YES if the Democratic Party wins at least 218 of the 435 seats in the US House of Representatives in the November 2024 elections. This can include independent candidates who caucus with the Democrats (in the same way that the party's Senate majority relies on independent senators). It doesn't matter if a Democrat actually becomes Speaker, only who wins more than half the seats in the election.

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US Congress

#🇺🇸 US Politics

#US Congressional Elections 2024

#2024 Matt Yglesias Predictions

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Finally official

bought Ṁ4,000 NO

Arb here

Arbitrage https://manifold.markets/ManifoldPolitics/who-will-control-the-government-aft?play=true

bought Ṁ50 NO

Arbitrage https://manifold.markets/ManifoldPolitics/will-republicans-take-the-majority-92f2658efb69?play=true

bought Ṁ250 NO

@CryptoNeoLiberalist Look at what the districts actually are for a more accurate prediction

@CainanKeyles Thank you, I am looking hard at it all!

@CryptoNeoLiberalist This doesn't count the rigged CA and NY commissions

@nikki Do you have a good source for how CA and NY are tilted? Never heard of this.

WA PRIMARY +17. I REPEAT. WA PRIMARY +17.

What happens if, for example, there are 217 Democrats, 216 Republicans, and two Libertarians who don't caucus with either party?

https://split-ticket.org/2024/06/01/introducing-our-2024-house-model/

bought Ṁ100 NO from 58% to 54%

Made a time sensitive (but inversed, this is just the question with the Yglesias tag) version of the question, for the Yglesias prediction category (reasoning inside why it's not just a duplicate):

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