In 2025, will any member of U.S. Congress change their party affiliation?
Plus
3
Ṁ1502026
52%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This market resolves YES if any of the 435 members of the United States House of Representatives or any of the 100 members the United States Senate changes their official party affiliation during 2025 in the time zone containing the most of their constituents.
If YES criteria have not been met, then this market resolves NO at 00:01 on 1 January 2026 Hawaii-Aleutian Time (UTC-10).
I will not bet in this market.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Related questions
Related questions
Will any current member of Congress leave their party before 2026.
76% chance
How many MPs will defect to another party in 2024?
Will the party that controls of the House of Representatives change between February 2025 and October 2026?
9% chance
Regardless of elections, will actual control of the White House switch parties in January 2029?
57% chance
Will a member of United States congress die in 2025?
83% chance
Will a member of United States House of Representatives die in 2025?
65% chance
Will there be an Effective Altruist member of the US Congress by January 2025?
18% chance
Will a member of United States congress die in 2025?
82% chance
Will a member of United States congress die in 2026?
77% chance
Will there be a major change to the US political system by the end of 2035?
72% chance