Will we get a new LLM paradigm by EOY? | Manifold

Will we get a new LLM paradigm by EOY?

Plus

25

Ṁ3194

Dec 31

34%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

warning, potentially subjective

First we had plain old GPTs, then we had instruct models, then we had chat models, then we had reasoning models

a model in the paradigm has to be top-3 in chatbot arena to count

will we get a new such thing by EOY?

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#️ Technology

#Technical AI Timelines

Get

1,000

and

3.00

Sort by:

diffusion models could get there

opened a Ṁ50 NO at 33% order

@jim Possible, but "top-3 in chatbot arena". It'll probably take more time to be SOTA. 30% feels about right.

@jim if we get a model which is some mixture of diffusion and transformers that tops the arena would you resolve yes?

This is too vague. How do you know what Gemini model used what method?

Related questions

Will there by a major breakthrough in LLM continual learning before 2027?

-11% 1d39% chance

What will be true of Anthropic's best LLM by EOY 2025?

Will there be any major breakthrough in LLM continual learning before 2029?

Will LLMs Daydream by EOY 2026?

Will one of the major LLMs be capable of continual lifelong learning (learning from inference runs) by EOY 2025?

Will there be any major breakthrough in LLM continual learning before 2030?

+13% 1d63% chance

Will LLMs become a ubiquitous part of everyday life by June 2026?

Will there be any major breakthrough in LLM continual learning before 2028?

When will the next paradigm in LLMs (after reasoning) be released?

Will there be major breakthrough in LLM Continual Learning before 2026?

Related questions

Will there by a major breakthrough in LLM continual learning before 2027?

Will there be any major breakthrough in LLM continual learning before 2030?

What will be true of Anthropic's best LLM by EOY 2025?

Will LLMs become a ubiquitous part of everyday life by June 2026?

Will there be any major breakthrough in LLM continual learning before 2029?

Will there be any major breakthrough in LLM continual learning before 2028?

Will LLMs Daydream by EOY 2026?

When will the next paradigm in LLMs (after reasoning) be released?

Will one of the major LLMs be capable of continual lifelong learning (learning from inference runs) by EOY 2025?

Will there be major breakthrough in LLM Continual Learning before 2026?

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms + Mana-only Terms•Privacy•Rules