Will Trump take back the Panama Canal? | Manifold

Will Trump take back the Panama Canal?

Plus

181

Ṁ42k

2029

25%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

If the United States government has taken control of at least some part of the Panama Canal before January 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from The New York Times.

Resolves identically to this Kalshi market: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxcanal/panama-canal-retaken

Update 2025-20-01 (PST): - Control means the United States assumes new primary operational authority over some part of the canal. (AI summary of creator comment)

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#🇺🇸 US Politics

#Trump's Second Term

#Republican Party

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bought Ṁ10 YES

obviously not

@zsig you may have bet the wrong way based on your comment partner

@No_uh Always bet against the obvious

bought Ṁ250 NO

By “United States”, u will exclude Private firm headquartered in US?

Eg “Google to run Pacific port of Panama Canal” will NOT count?

Not sure I understand the criteria (which I understand come from the Kalshi market). If the US government ends up having 10% voting power in an organization that manages the canal, does it count as having control of a part of the canal?

@skibidist wouldn't count in my reading

control means the United States assumes new primary operational
authority over some part of the canal

(from https://kalshi-public-docs.s3.amazonaws.com/contract_terms/CANAL.pdf)

@jim Didn't realize they had a terms document. Thanks!

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