It's currently 5,858.38.
1,000
3.00follow up question @jim, if you think s&p 500 will hit 1,000,000, why not make a market about that instead
@bens AGI. I'm predicting it will be in the millions.
By the end of 2026 we will have advanced AGI. Knowledge work will be automated, with human workers unable to compete on cost, knowledge, reasoning ability, and personability. The only knowledge workers remaining will be those at the absolute frontier of human knowledge. These knowledge workers, such as researchers at frontier AI labs, will have their productivity massively amplified by AI which can do the equivalent of hundreds of hours of skilled human programming, mathematics, etc. work in a fraction of that time.
The economy will not yet have been anywhere near fully-robotised (making enough robots takes time, as does the necessary algorithmic progress), so manual labour (which by this point will be largely AI-directed) will be in extremely high demand.
The writing will be on the wall: full-automation, including space industrialisation and science beyond human comprehension will be correctly seen as an inevitability, and AI company valuations will have increased by unprecedented amounts. Leading AI company market capitalisations could realistically measure in the quadrillions, and the S&P-500 in the millions.
even with a superintelligence explosion we don't get 2000% S&P growth in 1.5 years
Here I think you are very wrong! The S&P can see 2000% growth overnight if it becomes clear that a company will seize control of the lightcone. No one sensible would want to sell any appreciable fraction of the humanity's cosmic endowment for anything less than a fortune. And that's all it takes -- if no one's selling Google shares for less than, say, $1,000,000 (and why would they? assuming it developed ASI), that will bring the S&P 500 well into the millions.
@jim why do you think its going to be by end of 2026, and not 2030 or 2027 or something like that? Just curious
@NoAnswer based on METR's work on AI agents, which you can read about here: https://theaidigest.org/time-horizons
In short, AI can currently do tasks which take skilled humans 1.5 hours. Based on current trends, this should double every four months, which means five doubles before EOY 2026. This gets us to a time-horizon of 48 hours. But for a couple reasons (one of which is the fact that AI will increasingly contribute to AI progress) I expect this to be higher, perhaps 200 hours or indefinite.
And I expect that the gap between that kind of AI and advanced AGI [1] is tiny and easily bridgeable.
[1] Here's what I mean by advanced AGI:
By advanced artificial general intelligence, I mean AI systems that rival or surpass the human brain in complexity and speed, that can acquire, manipulate and reason with general knowledge, and that are usable in essentially any phase of industrial or military operations where a human intelligence would otherwise be needed. Such systems may be modeled on the human brain, but they do not necessarily have to be, and they do not have to be "conscious" or possess any other competence that is not strictly relevant to their application. What matters is that such systems can be used to replace human brains in tasks ranging from organizing and running a mine or a factory to piloting an airplane, analyzing intelligence data or planning a battle.