RESOLUTION CRITERIA Resolves YES if Gandalf makes a crossover appearance and he's black, Resolves NO if he makes an appearance and isn't black. Also resolves YES if we get a crossover episode featuring a Gandalf the Black to go along with Gandalf the Grey and Gandalf the White, even if he is not actually Black. Resolves N/A if no appearance by end of first season

@evan What the characters are shown watching a Rankin/Bass adaptation of LOTR/Hobbit, in which Gandalf is depicted as white? (Peter Jackson's adaptations would be anachronistic)

@GG Would resolve NO

@evan what if there is a character like a house elf or something named gandalf and he is black in coloration?

@BlackCrusade that seems like a lock for YES

@bens @evan what if there's a character called Gendolf or some other permutation which is pronounced similarly?

@evan I'm going to focus on manifesting this.

@evan in the books or the movies?

@noaht2 this is the case in The Cursed Child but not in the films

I wish we had a market on whether any of the actors will come out as trans in the next 25 years.

@BrunoParga you could make one?

@dgga tomorrow

@dgga it is tomorrow where I live (j/k, but almost)

I've created three options here: https://manifold.markets/TylerMurphy/what-will-be-true-of-the-new-harry-CqQO9zp2nq#q50LnOUQl0pd

I made a market for the series as a whole https://manifold.markets/TylerMurphy/what-will-be-true-of-the-new-harry-CqQO9zp2nq

@evan How do we even quantify that? Like, what needs to happen for "yes" to win this?

@MikeFrenkel I'll watch it, if it seems woke resolves YES. Otherwise NO

In the book it's "Harry - you're a wizard"

The book makes it seem like he's not wearing a head covering and he doesn't meld with Voldy until later on

Omg please na @jim I didn't know it was 1000

@strutheo mandrake root

If we don't get to Hogwarts on the first episode how does the last 10minute question resolve?

@RicardoVieira Presumably would resolve NO

@Bandors Then it's True only i it happens in the last 10 minutes of episode 1, not before nor after

I'm probably not gonna bet because the resolution condition(s) are not clearly (or at all) defined, and I hate even taking part in this discussion (Idgaf about the race of anyone, only about the integrity of these markets), but looking at the few pictures Google gives me of Stanton, she is obviously not white. I don't know if we have a different definition for 'white' in Europe or something, but whatever ethnicity she is, it's definitely not white lol. 71% on this option is ridiculous.

@dgga yolo