What valuations will Thinking Machines reach by EOY 2027?
4
Ṁ182
2027
31%
$30 Billion
16%
$50 Billion
13%
$100 Billion
4%
$1 Trillion

if Thinking Machines raises funds at a certain valuation (or does a deal which is similarly indicative of the lab's value) the option at or below that valuation resolve YES.

at end of year 2027, any options not yet met resolve NO

  • Update 2025-05-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Regarding potential acquisitions of Thinking Machines, the creator has indicated that the specific form an acquisition takes will be a factor in determining the valuation for market resolution. The structure and terms of the deal will be considered when assessing if it is 'similarly indicative of the lab's value' and at what resulting valuation.

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i could see it getting acquired at like 10B and then creating 200B in value but then that would leave it at a 10B valuation right?

@Bayesian probably yeah although depends on the form the aquisition takes

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