Will we have useful fault-tolerant Quantum Computers within the next decade
Plus
11
Ṁ6442034
70%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
As judged by Scott Aaronson https://scottaaronson.blog/?p=8310
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Sort by:
Let me end by sticking my neck out. If hardware progress continues at the rate we’ve seen for the past year or two, then I find it hard to understand why we won’t have useful fault-tolerant QCs within the next decade. (And now to retreat my neck a bit: the “if” clause in that sentence is important and non-removable!)
Interesting. I wish I understood the implications of this.
Related questions
Related questions
Will a quantum computer perform a calculation by 2026 that is impossible for any classical supercomputer?
75% chance
When will Quantum computing become viable?
2033
Will there be a quantum computer with 100,000 functioning qbits before 2035?
69% chance
Will quantum computing be commonly used in commercial applications by 2030?
26% chance
Will Quantum computing break RSA encryption before 2030?
30% chance
When will we get personal quantum computers? 🖥️
Will IBM produce a functional 100,000 qubit quantum-centric computing system by 2033?
23% chance
Will a quantum computer show a clear advantage vs classical computers in solving a major cryptographic problem by 2030?
41% chance
Will IBM be the first to create a quantum computer with over 10,000 qubits?
56% chance
How many research groups will have claimed to have achieved a "quantum advantage" on quantum computers by end 2024?