How many NBA championships will Jason Tatum win as a player?
He doesn't need to be the best player, just on the roster. Market resolves when he retires. If he looks like he'll play beyond the resolution date, I'll add more time.
1,000
3.0027% this year - age 28
19% next year - age 29
13% in 2027 - age 30
9% in 2028 - age 31
I'd expect him to win ~1.2 more rings (~2.2 total) in his career on average
Given Celtics win this year, I'd probably increase it to ~3.1 total rings vs ~1.9 given they don't.
Then in 2027
so roughly need to map out the scenarios for next 3 years then assuming that he's expected to win poisson(0.6) rings from age 31 onwards.
3 rings in next 3 years
27% x 20% x 20% = 1% -> other
2 rings in next 3 years:
73% x 18% x 20% = 2.6%
27% x 20% x 80% = 4.3%
27% x 80% x 13% = 2.8%
7.7% -> 4.2% of 3, 3.5% of other
0 rings in next 3 years:
73% x 82% x 89% = 53.3%
-> 29.3% of 1, 17.6% of 2, 5.3% of 3, 1.1% of Other
BTW it's Jayson not Jason, so technically it should be 0