What will Astral Codex Ten post about in 2024?
Basic
21
Ṁ1958Jan 1
93%
Humorous post about Trump or Biden or the presidential election
91%
A post about any psychiatric medication, or a specific class of psychiaric medications
87%
Yet another post in the Bay Area House Party series
75%
An explicit endorsement or anti-endorsement in the presidential election
71%
"hardball questions for the Presidential debate"
69%
Any "Model City Monday"
50%
China
36%
Georgism
34%
Effectiveness of SSRIs
25%
New serialized fiction with multiple chapters
24%
This market
24%
A post about whether AIs are moral patients
20%
@Tumbles (any mention)
18%
Ray Kurzweil's new book
13%
An announcement that he'll post much less indefinitely (something like a year or longer) (any mention)
Resolved
YESAnother post in the Bay Area House Party series
Resolved
YESsignificant progress towards publishing UNSONG (hopium) (any mention)
Resolved
YESAnnouncement of Unsong being published (any mention)
Resolved
YESCovid Lab Leak theory
Must be part of the main topic of a post, unless otherwise specificed in the option. Funny options are fine.
I expect some of these to be subjective judgement calls! If I bet on something and it's disputed I'll consult with other moderators before resolving it.
Only posts after the time of posting ("Book Review Contest Rules 2024") count.
Private posts count
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Sort by:
Related questions
Related questions
Will browsing Astral Codex Ten be less annoying before the end of 2024?
80% chance
Will there be a new narrator on the Astral Codex Ten podcast in 2024?
30% chance
Will Destiny publish a manifesto in 2024?
23% chance
Will Alecto the Ninth be released in 2024?
9% chance
Will the Unfolding Atlas substack post more than the Experience Machines substack in 2024?
15% chance
Scott Alexander/ Astral Codex Ten Stock (permanent)
Ṁ631