Background: "The story so far: in the mid 2010s, Honduras passed a first-in-the-world law saying that private actors could apply to run charter cities / special economic zones (ZEDEs) on Honduran territory. Three groups took them up on the offer and designed various interesting projects. In January, Honduras kicked out the right-wing government that passed the ZEDE law and replaced it with a socialist party led by Xiomara Castro, which had made opposition to the ZEDEs part of its platform. In April, the new government repealed the ZEDE law, with uncertain consequences." https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/model-city-monday-62722
Update 2025-10-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will resolve YES if "officially shutting down" occurs through any of the following scenarios:
Honduran government passing actual laws making ZEDE void, rescinds all special autonomy, and legal regimes (requires constitutional amendment?)
Government practically blocks operations: freezes utilities, halts infrastructure
Government takes actions treating Próspera as part of normal Honduran jurisdiction: inserting national regulatory agencies, local municipal authorities
Próspera (company) withdraws from ZEDE agreement
Creator is open to other qualifying scenarios.
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3.00@MiguelSanchezB I've copied another market with different date, indeed rules could be better.
"shutting down" could be interpreted as:
- Honduran government passing actual laws making ZEDE void, rescinds all special autonomy, and legal regimes (requires constitutional amendment?)
- Government practically blocks operations: freezes utilities, halts infrastructure
- Government takes actions treating Próspera as part of normal Honduran jurisdiction: inserting national regulatory agencies, local municipal authorities
- Próspera (company) withdraws from ZEDE agreement
Do you have some other possible scnearios that would qualify?