50% chance. Resolves to YES if there is broad consensus that the armed forces of Ukraine control all of Melitopol within its official administrative limits, for at least 24 consecutive hours, at any point before the end of 2026. If that has not happened by the 1st of January, 2027 (local time), it resolves to NO. In case there is any ambiguity at that point as to whether the city is fully under Ukrainian control or contested, a delay of 7 days will be added to ascertain what the exact status of the city was on the last 24 hours of 2026.