The correct price here is the minimum possible. If YES, resolution will not be feasible.

Also YES is extremely unlikely.

@JiSK The basilisk could torture me by mis-resolving this market. If I was coherent enough to acausally threaten.

This should be so much lower than it is - remember it's not a market one whether the logic behind the roko's basilisk though experiment makes sense (although it very probably doesn't), it's whether the basilisk actually comes into being. This won't happen for the same reason alignment is a serious problem: humans (collectively) are just not sufficiently rational/long-term/co-ordinated in their planning to pull off something like that to improve their distant future. So in 20 years if you get melted down into paperclips because some ML designer forgot to carry the 2 on an alignment function, you can at least comfort yourself that you possibly escaped eternal suffering by the same lack of rational planning that lead to that moment :/

Only reason I don't bet this down to <1% is because there's no way this will actually resolve.

@JosephNoonan There are ways it could resolve

@AlexKChen How so (other than Roko's Basilisk actually happening)? Do you have a plan for resolving this NO under any circumstance? Since there is no time frame, it seems like you could always say that Roko's Basilisk might just happen further in the future.

@JosephNoonan Ok by 2050 how's that?

How on Earth do you expect to be able to payout?