What topics on Manifold will have at least 500 DAU at end of January 2025?
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แน€11k
Feb 1
72%
Politics
64%
US Politics
51%
Trump
43%
Technology
35%
Trump's Second Term
35%
Republican Party
29%
AI
26%
NFL
26%
NBA
24%
Sports
22%
Elon Musk
21%
2024 US Presidential Election
21%
Crypto
18%
Economics
17%
Esports
16%
๐Ÿฟ Entertainment and Pop Culture

I just created a new graph that shows daily active users by topic at https://manifold.markets/stats. It only shows topics with at least 50 active users. I will resolve YES any topic that has at least 500 DAUs in the last week of january.

I will not resolve YES to any tag that is a mispelling or otherwise basically the same tag as another, more popular tag in an attempt to manipulate this market. For example, someone creates a tag called 'Political markets' in the last week and attaches it to some markets that deliver it 500 DAUs. In that case the we'll just merge the tag with Politics.

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@traders I made the graph prettier

@traders does it change your trades now that i've set the resolution to be those topics still popular at the end of january?

bought แน€150 NO

sweet feature! love this!

i assume this is about the DAU on same day at end of January 2025? (or if it's "anytime before then", some can already resolve YES?)

@Ziddletwix Ah good question, I think it should be sth like: in the last week of January, do any of these topics hit 500 or above DAUs?

@ian That makes sense to me! Seems to match the spirit of the question

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