Will China unify with Taiwan by the end of 2030?
Will China unify with Taiwan by the end of 2030?
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4
Ṁ135Jan 1
17%
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1W
1M
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Will resolve to yes if the PRC controls the island on Dec 31st, 2030.
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The market is substantially underestimating the probability of China flat out invading Taiwan.
Jaded Americans, who don't want anything that much and certainly would not die for a 3nm fab, are struggling to comprehend how an ethno-nationalist industrial superpower would use violence to retake what it sees as stolen property.
Other methods of reunification are possible (≈10% chance), but violence is being unfairly discounted due to recency bias and the popular but flawed reasoning that nuclear weapons will prevent direct great power conflict.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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