You're 12 points above Feodor who is about 50-50.

https://manifold.markets/Math4Life2020/will-i-make-imo-2025-ce26w5jwer

I have to say that the positive update hasn't been big enough. 92% before TST to 95% now?

@nathanwei Does anyone know the current rankings? afaik from the markets, Hannah is at 41, Tiger Zhang at 37, and Feodor at 29.

Also, when will the USA TST statistics by Evan Chen be published?

When was January TST held and is there an aops link for the problems?

Edit: it's now on aops :)

Arb with https://manifold.markets/DeadRhino/will-hannah-follow-through-with-her

Fuck, I bet against you. Thought it read 2024. Just do me a favour. Do not get a boyfriend anytime soon.

SLAYYYY QUEEN 👑

I bet all my money on u Hannah (I js joined)

u better make it

Do you expect Alex Zhao to go to IMO 2025? He is eligible, right?

How many seniors on this years' team?

Was the guy you tied with a senior? How about the next few people? College-bound juniors count as seniors.

Will anyone go to RSI or some such?

@nathanwei Alex Zhao is graduating. This year's team has 4 seniors and the people who were close to IMO are a mix between juniors and seniors. I'm not sure if anyone is going to RSI, but if they are, they're still eligible for IMO 2025 because they can take TSTST remotely.

@hannah OK. I'm at 90-95%. Tempted to buy some really cheap NO.

Edit: Bought some NO. I think you are very likely to make it but 98% is too much.

The RSI question was more like "will Alexander Wang do RSI next year".