Will Open AI release a model that can reliably compute a 20 digits multiplication correctly in 2025?
Will Open AI release a model that can reliably compute a 20 digits multiplication correctly in 2025?
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The model must correctly compute the product of two randomly chosen 20-digit numbers with at least 90% accuracy, meaning it may produce incorrect results in at most 10 out of 100 independent trials.
The model must perform this computation without executing code, scripts, or relying on external computational tools.
A YES resolution will occur immediately upon verification that a model meets these criteria. If no such model is verified by the end of the year, the resolution will be NO.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
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