Will I create a controversial market in 2025?

Ṁ69

2026

45%

chance

ALL

Resolves to poll at market close.

Update 2025-03-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarification of Resolution Criteria:
- Poll Timing: A poll will be created at the end of the year to determine the outcome.
- Resolution Question: The poll will ask, "Did I create a controversial market in 2025?"
- Voter Discretion: Voters will decide what qualifies as a controversial market.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

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bought Ṁ10 YES

Evidence for likely yes:

It appears we may have a nazbol among us

16d

@TheAllMemeingEye I've been exposed!

@evan Hey the comment very explicitly said "I may screenshot the notification and share it with others without context" you cannot blame me haha

Btw are you counting polls you may make as markets?

16d

@TheAllMemeingEye Yeah, I would count those. The idea is I create a poll at EOY asking, "Did I create a controversial market in 2025?" And it would be up to the voter to decide what was and was not a controversial market.

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What is this?

What is Manifold?

Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.

Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.

Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.

Are our predictions accurate?

Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.

How do I win cash prizes?

Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.

All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.

Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.

Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00
→ $1.00, minus a 5% fee.

Learn more.

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