Will the US federal government actually have a "Department of Government Efficiency"?
Plus
52
Ṁ14k2025
10%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves YES if a department of the US federal government with the exact name "Department of Government Efficiency" (up to capitalization differences) and a set of responsibilities that roughly matches this name is created by November 12, 2025 at 11:59PM Eastern Time (a year after this market was created). Resolves NO otherwise.
Note that, under the current system, creating a new department requires an act of Congress to that effect.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Sort by:
Related questions
Related questions
Will the Department of Government Efficiency accomplish anything of note?
50% chance
Will the Department of Government Efficiency lead to at least 10,000 federal government layoffs by 4th of July 2026?
62% chance
Will Trump actually create a department of government efficiency by the end of 2026?
82% chance
Will the Department of Government Efficiency lead to at least 100,000 federal government layoffs by 4th of July 2026?
24% chance
Will the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) do anything meaningful by July 4th 2026?
24% chance
Will the Department of Government Efficiency recommend cancelling SLS before 2029?
61% chance
Will the US Department of Education cease to exist during the Trump administration?
15% chance
How many entire government agencies will be eliminated by within one year of Trump taking office?
Will a large government organization be run as a futarchy before 2030?
21% chance
Will Elon Musk still be one of the leaders of the Dept of Gov Efficiency on the first of march 2025?
90% chance