Ding vs. Gukesh - 2024 World Chess Championship prop bets
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51
Ṁ20k
Dec 14
25%
h-pawn crosses the fourth rank (to h5 for White or h4 for black) before move 14 in a game
23%
One player wins two consecutive games in the classical part of the match
15%
The French defence (1.e4 e6 2.d4 d5) is played at least 3 times
30%
Average "average centipawn loss" for a single game is greater than 50 in a game
1.9%
Gukesh reaches 2800 in live rating
30%
Ding finishes with fewer rating points than he started with (2728)
5%
Exactly 11 games are needed to decide the match
35%
A position reached after 10 moves is exactly similar to a position in two previous world championships
16%
The Queens Gambit Accepted is played at least once
30%
One players odds of winning reach at least 90% on Polymarket up to 6 hours after game 7
28%
The match is decisive i.e winner gets at least +3
57%
A tablebase position is reached
49%
Winners TPR is >2820
6%
Either player forfeits the match before it's decided
15%
There is a series of three consecutive decisive games
36%
Opposite-side castling happens in at least 2 games
52%
No occurrences of the Berlin defence (1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nc6 3.Bb5 Nf6)
73%
1.e4 is the most commonly played first move
31%
Zero occurrences of the Sicilian defence (1.e4 c5)
72%
Both players win multiple games

Add your props. Please be as clear and concise as possible to avoid confusion.

Polymarket market referenced - https://polymarket.com/event/world-chess-championship-2024-winner?tid=1731990671056

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I might not be following the next two rounds so please prompt me when the options resolve. If you have any interesting props please also suggest them and I'll add them

bought Ṁ734 NO

@dlin007 Resolves NO

@dlin007 Resolves YES.

@dlin007 What about pawn captures? Is this about where the pawn started, or what file it's on now? How about a move for white like gxh6?

@DanielTilkin saw this late, but no. it's gotta be a pawn push

@dlin007 unless explicitly stated, this includes any potential tiebreaks for this and similar props

bought Ṁ50 NO

I have this other market with similar but more unusual happenings to watch out for: /Ernie/rosen-score-of-weird-thing-that-wil

@dlin007 resolution source is lichess post-game engine analysis. i will average both players' ACL to resolve

@Weezing Is this live rating per 2700chess.com, or official fide rating? fide rounds to the nearest whole point, which could make a difference.

Although it's possible (though unlikely) Ding plays another tournament in December, so we might not have a post-match official fide rating.

@DanielTilkin didn't create the option but I assume it's literally just his live rating at the end of the tournament

@DanielTilkin live rating

@dlin007 Resolves NO.

@dlin007 What? Why is this resolved?

EDIT: I guess you meant Gukesh wins before Ding. I thought it meant that Gukesh achieves his first win in a classical portion.

@Weezing I mean it's unambiguous? Your interpretation would be 'Gukesh gets his first win (of the match) during the classical games' as opposed to the first win. But maybe i should have added 'of the match' to be clearer

@dlin007 I disagree that it is unambigious. Depends if the question is asking only about Gukesh wins (only mentions him) or it includes Ding wins. I would expect your question to be worded like "Gukesh wins before Ding in classical" or "Gukesh is the first to win in classical". But it's fine, I should have read it more carefully when you were betting NO.

bought Ṁ453 YES

Resolves YES. Ding apparently fooled all of us and has merely been pretending to be weak as a joke

More prop bets added @traders...first game starts in 1 hour

After drawing of lots Gukesh has white during game 1. Given that the match will likely end before game 14 and his main second Gajewski has perhaps the best 1.e4 repertoire in the world, this is a 90% lock. It also means a game 1 victory is on the cards

What's the difference between this one and "Gukesh will reach 2800 in live rating"?

@Calibrate None, I though when was adding it for the first time that it did not go through, so I added it again.

@Weezing N/A'ed one of the duplicates

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