Gukesh losing game one this morning is likely a nail in the coffin for this market

this is getting pretty precarious. assuming he doesn't win tomorrow, he basically needs an unbeaten +5 against Ding to reach 2800, am I right @Weezing ?

@diadematus Pretty much, he gets +4.2 for a win and -0.8 for a draw.

Gukesh trying his best to choke so it's a good thing we have Nodirbek as backup

There’s no way Gukesh doesn’t get 15 more points when he farms Ding in the world championship match

@AshtonIvanov my reaction to this attempted jinx: https://youtu.be/M6yxToYeHVw?t=11

Nodirbek Abdusattorov now only 35 points away...2800+ TPR over his last ~40 games. Needs to go +8 against 2700-level opposition for the rest of the year to get there. Seems likely to me!

@diadematus 35 points is a lot at this level. Very few people have achieved it and now when there is rating deflation it will be even harder. I am a big Nodirbek fan and I would love if he did it, but I don't think it's likely in 2024.

@Weezing Anish Giri and Alireza have done it and Nodirbek is no worse than them so he certainly should be able to do it on general grounds even with deflation. My basic theory is prodigies crossing 2800 (Alireza, Carlsen) don't do it by accumulating points slow and steady, they usually have a big leap, catch fire and go on a small rampage even if they later slow down. Alireza was 2750ish in Sep 2021 and 2800 by Feb 2022. Nodirbek has already shown a bit of that in just one tournament in 2024. On the same basis, I don't rule out Pragg or one of the Indian prodigies coming really close. On more practical terms...Nodirbek will probably play 50 more games this year against say 2680 opposition, to bet against him getting to 2800 is to bet that he will be less than +12 in that time.

@diadematus Not exactly sure what you mean with 2680 opposition, but if he played 50 games against players with average rating 2680 and won 12 and drew 38, he would gain 0 points.

@Weezing ha, that is what i meant but my math is apparently way off. so he would need to be + 21 vs. 2680 opposition to get to 2800...which seems...tough. I believe in my overall hypothesis though...one of the. 2750s/2760 juniors is bound to go on a streak of good results (like Nodirbek just did) that will bring him to something like 2785 then it's a coin flip imo

@Weezing I'm feeling very bullish about this now that we have dual threats for 2800 and Gukesh is about to go +5 vs. Ding after farming the Olympiad

@diadematus Gukesh has 20 games left this year (6 here, 14 WC), so would have to have very good performance in Olympiad on board 1 and then crush Ding completely (if Ding mentally collapses). It is possible with how volatile Ding is, but more likely he wil win with like +2 or +3 and that won't be enough.

As for Nodirbek we are 3/4 through the year and he is on the same elo roughly as when this market was created, so he can also spike it, but it is rather long shot imo. Maybe if he goes the Arjun route and tries to farm some lower rated players. He didn't do that great in GCT.

Arjun has the best chance, I think he has decent chance to make it with farming Olympiad on board 3 and maybe 1 extra tournament. But he does not count for this market.

But your chances have definitely improved with Gukesh excellent performance so far. However Olympiad is tricky and you can also quickly lose a lot of Elo.