Manifold Cash Prizes via Sweepstakes Prop Bets
Basic
34
Ṁ9624
Jan 1
23%
There is a way in the Manifold UI for users to propose markets to be designated as Sweepstakes Markets
20%
There is a way for users to propose their market to be designated as Sweepstakes Markets during market creation
20%
At least 1 market with wording in the title referencing unrelated Manifold functionality (ie “subsidy”, “add your own”, etc) is designated as a Sweepstakes Market
16%
A multiple choice market can be designated as eligible for Sweepcash only for some answers in the market but not others
6%
Sweepcash is redeemable for gift card(s)
5%
Sweepcash is are redeemable for Manifold merch
4%
At least 1 death market is designated as a Sweepstakes Market
4%
Sweepcash is redeemable for digital goods/cosmetics on Manifold
4%
At least 1 assassination market is designated as a Sweepstakes Market
3%
At least 1 independent multiple choice sports market (all answers) is designated as a Sweepstakes Market
3%
This market is designated as a Sweepstakes Market
3%
At least 1 numeric market is designated as a Sweepstakes Market
3%
Users in at least 1 non-U.S. jurisdiction are able to earn cash prizes
3%
A non-Manifold employee (i.e. a moderator) can designate a market as a Sweepstakes Market
Resolved
YES
Donations are no longer be honored at the original 100 mana : 1 USD after May 15th
Resolved
YES
Sweepstakes points are formally named "Prize Points" in the UI
Resolved
YES
Prize Points are awarded from user referrals
Resolved
YES
Mana is no longer able redeemable as a donation to charity
Resolved
YES
Markets that award Prize Points are formally named "Prize Markets" in the UI
Resolved
YES
At least 1 multiple choice market that allows user-added answers is designated as a Prize Market

Bottom line up front: I'm very interested in how Manifold will evolve this year toward this "cash prizes via sweepstakes" initiative. Most initial answers come from Manifold's official May 1st announcement about this initiative.

--

Maybe I missed it, but I haven't seen any open-ended markets specifically focused on how Manifold will work once it rolls out its cash prizes sweepstakes (i.e. the Pivot):

For ease of resolution, answers will resolve YES if they are true at any point prior to January 1st, 2025, regardless of whether they are definitively related to implementation of the cash prizes via sweepstakes initiative and regardless of whether they are implemented and then undone prior to 2025.

Names in answers referring to a thing, (i.e. "Mana" for play money, "Prize Points" for sweepstakes prizes) should be understood as representative of the underlying thing unless the answer is specifically about naming of the thing. i.e. if there's an answer like "Prize Points are redeemable for cash" and Prize Points are renamed to Win Points or something else, I'll update the answer to say "Win Points are redeemable for cash".

If an answer is unclear, ask in the comments. I reserve the right to reword answers myself to make them clearer.

I will use my judgment to resolve or not resolve subjective answers as I see fit, or N/A them where I feel resolving either YES or NO would be inappropriate or unduly unfair. Also, I want this to be a high-quality market about this important initiative, so I may N/A submissions for any reason.

Comments are encouraged to help notify me that answers can be resolved and to facilitate speedy resolution. I reserve the right to resolve NO any answer for which sufficient evidence is not provided.

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00
Sort by:

All references in answers to Prize Points or Prize Markets updated to Sweepcash or Sweepstakes Markets per original description.

The "independent multiple choice" format is a bug-ridden disaster, are we really this confident they'll use the payout feature on that type?

This feels very high to me. Does anyone know a specific topic/issue that is particularly well-suited for this usage? On first reading, I thought "15%".

@dglid This needs an answer related to having an actual accounting system in place to track "money". Currently the "money" is just "whatever someone invented".

@Eliza not sure I follow?

@dglid Manifold's 'balance' has no 'accounting system', your balance is just a number. It can change with absolutely no record or explanation. Will they add an actual accounting system to better track balances?

boughtṀ25 NO

@nikki You stole my bet when I already had the window open! Sneaky!

bought Ṁ50 NO

@dglid I think this is very unlikely, based on what I have read/observed.

opened a Ṁ1,000 NO at 1.0% order

@dglid resolves no

bought Ṁ223 YES

Resolves yes

@nikki I don’t believe this has actually happened yet so will leave this open until this month’s league closes and the prize points are actually awarded.

bought Ṁ139 YES

Resolves yes

According to standup notes from Friday, @IngaWei will be implementing this 🎉

reposted

Lots of activity on this market today given yesterday’s release of Prize Points

Not yet…

None yet…

sold Ṁ48 YES

I need to check the desktop UI, but I think this resolves NO

Confirmed. $14.99 on iOS, $13.99 on desktop for 10k mana. Resolves NO.

bought Ṁ100 YES

UI says this should be the case, but if someone who gets a referral could confirm this is working, that would be appreciated!

bought Ṁ100 YES

Resolves yes

bought Ṁ175 YES

Resolves yes

Resolves yes

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms + Mana-only Terms•Privacy•Rules