Context: Manifold is pivoting to a new business model based on real cash prizes under a sweepstakes model. In the pivot announcement, Manifold mentioned the social sports betting company Fliff as representative of the sweepstakes model they're pursuing. I read this as "Manifold is to be like Fliff, but for user-generated questions about anything, not just centrally-created/managed questions about sports."
As such, being aware of how Fliff operates should provide insight into how Manifold may operate in the future. So:
In what ways will Manifold be like Fliff by end of year?
Suggest new answers in comments and I'll add them. Initial answers came after my reading of Fliff's Sweepstakes rules, Terms of Use, and functionality described on the Fliff marketing site and in YouTube videos. Ask clarifying questions in comments.
For ease of resolution, answers will resolve YES if they are true at any point prior to January 1st, 2025, regardless of whether they are related to implementation of the PivotTM and regardless of whether they are implemented and then undone prior to 2025.
Any names referring to a thing, (i.e. "Prize Points" for promotional sweepstakes entries, "Mana" for play money) should be understood as representative of the underlying thing, even if the name of that thing changes. I will update answers to reflect new names as soon as I can/am made aware.
Here's a similar question, though I suspect there may be disagreement about whether this pivot is indeed "real money trading":
1,000
3.00@dglid Unclear if this requires more than one contest, but we've had at least one: https://x.com/ManifoldMarkets/status/1839901173224223063
@dglid I think this can also resolve yes:
7.10. We will only process one Prize redemption request per Customer Account in any 5 day period.
This looks like it will resolve NO unless changed by EOY given that term is 90 days, not 30:
2.8. Inactive Accounts. If a Participant deemed inactive or ineligible in the sole discretion of Manifold, Participant will forfeit any balance of Sweepcash. Unless Manifold agrees and decides otherwise, Sweepcash is only valid for ninety (90) days from the date the Participant last logged on to their Customer Account and will thereafter automatically expire. This forfeiture clause does not apply to Sweepcash which has already been used to participate in a Sweepstakes Prediction Game.
This looks like it will resolve NO since only employees, and not former employees or immediate family or household members, are ineligible:
1.6. Current Employees of Manaplay LLC ., any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, holding companies, advertising agencies, or any other company or individual who has direct control or involvement with the design, production, execution, settlement, or distribution of the Sweepstakes prediction games are not eligible to participate. Please refer to the Terms and Conditions for further information about other Manifold product offering eligibility.
This looks like it will resolve NO if not changed by end of year; minimum is $25:
6.5. The minimum redemption of a prize which may be requested by a Participant during any Sweepstakes Period (“Minimum Redemption”) shall be 25 eligible Sweepcash accumulated in your Account as to which the activity necessary for redemption has been satisfied, which currently corresponds to a $25 prize redemption request. Any requested redemption less than the Minimum Redemption shall not be permitted via the Platform or paid to the Participant.
Unless the current language changes by EOY, I plan on resolving this NO - the below is more about insider trading than being a "professional".
1.7. The Sweepstakes is open to Participants who do not have access to material, confidential, information that might impact the outcome of a Sweepstakes Prediction game. If a Participant is, in Manifold’s best judgment determined to have access to material, confidential, non-public information, or is using systematic methods to manipulate the Sweepstakes to obtain prizes, Manifold reserves the right to limit entries or exclude the Participant from the Sweepstakes.
Looks like this will resolve NO; probability must be 99% or less.
3.7. Redemption. Sweepcash obtained by any method in Section 2.2(a)-(d) is not immediately available for redemption of a prize and must be used at least once in a Sweepcash prediction game before it shall be considered eligible toward a prize redemption request; and, any Sweepcash obtained by a Participant by any method in Section 2.2(a)-(c) must be used to make prediction where the odds of winning have an implied probability of 99% or less, before the Sweepcash, if any, won by the Participant in the Sweepcash Game, may be eligible to be redeemed.
This looks like it will resolve NO if not changed by end of year; max is 10:
4. For each request a Participant submits, the Participant will at this time receive 1 Sweepcash credit THE MAXIMUM NUMBER OF REQUESTS PER PARTICIPANT SHALL BE 10 MAIL IN REQUESTS PER CALENDAR YEAR– ALL REQUESTS IN EXCESS OF 10 PER SWEEPSTAKES PERIOD SHALL BE DEEMED NULL AND VOID, AND SHALL NOT “CARRY OVER” TO ANOTHER CALENDAR YEAR. The Sweepcash awarded via this method will be added to the eligible Participant’s account subject to account verification and compliance in full with this subsection (d).
This looks like it will resolve NO, as the amount is roughly equivalent to $1 USD each, not $10 USD each:
4. For each request a Participant submits, the Participant will at this time receive 1 Sweepcash credit THE MAXIMUM NUMBER OF REQUESTS PER PARTICIPANT SHALL BE 10 MAIL IN REQUESTS PER CALENDAR YEAR– ALL REQUESTS IN EXCESS OF 10 PER SWEEPSTAKES PERIOD SHALL BE DEEMED NULL AND VOID, AND SHALL NOT “CARRY OVER” TO ANOTHER CALENDAR YEAR. The Sweepcash awarded via this method will be added to the eligible Participant’s account subject to account verification and compliance in full with this subsection (d).
Resolves YES per Sweepstakes terms:
1. ELIGIBILITY TO PARTICIPATE
1.1. Manifold Sweepstakes Prediction Games (the “Sweepstakes”) is open only to legal residents located in the states of the United States (excluding Delaware, Idaho, Michigan, and Washington)
Resolves yes per Terms:
3.1. You hereby declare and warrant that:
(a) you are over 18 years of age or such higher minimum age as required by the laws or regulations in the jurisdiction in which you are located at the time of accessing the Service and are, under the laws applicable to you, allowed to participate in the Games offered on the Platform;
@traders I've resolved a lot of these YES after looking through Sweepstakes rules. Any others are left open until end of year in the event they are added, but otherwise will likely resolve NO. I'll comment on a few of these now to provide clarity on which are likely to resolve NO based on current terms.
I've also updated any references in answers to "Prize Points" to "Sweepcash".
@kopecs Not sure why this and my last comment appear (at least to me) to not be on a specific choice, but this is for "Manifold reserves a right to use for promotional/media purposes any of the following details of users participating in sweepstakes: name, likeness, photograph, voice, opinions and/or hometown and state/province/territory". And the other is for "Manifold reserves a right to consider users in debt to Manifold if Manifold mistakenly awards Prize Points that the user redeems prior to Manifold correcting the mistake".
@kopecs I see the debt one and have resolved YES, but I'm not seeing any result when searching for the text for the promotional/media purposes one. Can you take a look at the sweepstakes rules and confirm that the text you suggested is no longer there?
@dglid Yes, they have changed section 9: https://web.archive.org/web/20240918021046/https://docs.manifold.markets/rules
WINNER’S LIST
9.1. Except where prohibited, participation in the Sweepstakes constitutes each Participant’s consent to Manifold's and its agents’ use of Participant’s name, likeness, photograph, voice, opinions and/or hometown and state/province/territory for promotional purposes in any media, worldwide, without further payment, notice or consideration.
9.2. For a list of winners during a Sweepstakes Period within a year from the date of request, send a request in writing by mail, specify the Month and Year requested (one Sweepstakes Game and Sweepstakes Period per request), and enclose a self-addressed, stamped envelope to:
Manaplay LLC
ATTN: SWEEPSTAKES WINNERS
P.O BOX 170247
San Francisco, CA 94117
@kopecs Ok thank you I’ll resolve this yes since it was the case at one point. I also see that you could request winner’s list via mail so will resolve that yes too even though that’s no longer the case.