Will I consider either of these Duncan Farrah et al Black Hole papers to be significant before 2033?
Basic
5
Ṁ772032
24%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Robin Hanson thinks "there's a least a 10% chance you will hear of this breakthrough many times over the next decade".
I'm no astrophysicist, so I'll mostly rely on whatever I can learn by looking at pop science and citations.
Provisional resolution criteria: resolves YES if either gets 300 citations, or if either is mentioned in Ars Technica on or after 1 Jan 2024, NO otherwise. These criteria can change if someone gives me a better suggestion, until 1 May 2023.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Related questions
Related questions
will a paper released *before 2030* by a frontier AI lab have one of their AIs as a co-author?
76% chance
Will we discover a black hole in our solar system before 2030?
5% chance
Will someone fall into a black hole by 2100?
4% chance
What will be the distance in light years to the nearest known black hole in 2030?
Will this paper (https://arxiv.org/pdf/2410.00965) get at least 50 citations by the end of 2025?
29% chance
Will an artificial black hole be created before 2040?
4% chance
Will we know if gravity is fundamentally quantum by the end of 2030?
20% chance
Will arxiv still exist in 2030?
96% chance
Observation of Hawking radiation by 2040?
26% chance
Will a graviton be directly observed in a peer-reviewed paper before 2100?
38% chance