Observation of Hawking radiation by 2040? | Manifold

Observation of Hawking radiation by 2040?

Basic

9

Ṁ181

2040

26%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Resolves YES if Hawking radiation is observed by 2040. This must be Hawking radiation from a black hole in GR. An astrophysical black hole counts, but so would an artificially made black hole. A quantum system claimed to be analogous to thus-and-such theory of gravity will not count.

The observation need not be "direct". It is sufficient for the BH's mass to be observed to be decreasing, for instance.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#Particle Physics

#Physics Forecasting

Get

1,000

and

3.00

Sort by:

predictedNO

What about very indirect evidence e.g. evaporating primordial black hole causing CMB spectral distortions?

@TomBouley that should resolve YES.

It'll be subjective. If the observation happens by 2040, I'll wait a few years to see how the consensus evolves.

Observing Hawking radiation from an astrophysical black hole is about as likely as discovering that the Moon is made of cheese. With an artificial black hole, it might be possible, but this is still very unlikely to occur in the given time frame.

Related questions

Will a gravitational wave signal be observed from a Thorne-Żytkow object by 2040?

Will a gamma ray burst stronger than GRB 221009A be observed between 2024 and 2035?

Quantum Telescopes by 2030?

Will an artificial black hole be created before 2040?

Will large-scale spatial curvature of the Universe be observed before 2040?

Will we have the Theory of Everything by 2040?

Will we find or make a wormhole to another observable universe that lets information flow both ways by the end of 2100?

What will be the distance in light years to the nearest known black hole in 2030?

Will a graviton be directly observed in a peer-reviewed paper before 2100?

Will someone fall into a black hole by 2100?

Related questions

Will a gravitational wave signal be observed from a Thorne-Żytkow object by 2040?

Will we have the Theory of Everything by 2040?

Will a gamma ray burst stronger than GRB 221009A be observed between 2024 and 2035?

Will we find or make a wormhole to another observable universe that lets information flow both ways by the end of 2100?

Quantum Telescopes by 2030?

What will be the distance in light years to the nearest known black hole in 2030?

Will an artificial black hole be created before 2040?

Will a graviton be directly observed in a peer-reviewed paper before 2100?

Will large-scale spatial curvature of the Universe be observed before 2040?

Will someone fall into a black hole by 2100?

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms + Mana-only Terms•Privacy•Rules