This market resolves YES if the combined number of seats won by the Social Democratic Party (SPD) and the Green Party exceeds the combined seats won by the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and Christian Social Union (CSU) in the German federal election on February 23, 2025.
Resolution will be based on the official results published by the Federal Returning Officer (Bundeswahlleiterin) at https://www.bundeswahlleiterin.de/
You can find a summary of current polling here, for example, and Spiegel's daily election outcome simulations with seat distributions as CSV here.
1,000
3.00In today's Spiegel election outcome simulations the market would resolve YES in around 40% of the cases (396 of 1000 in total). See here for the current CSV file.
@chstdu Today's Spiegel simulations show a drop to around only 34% for resolving YES, although this market here is still more optimistic.
@chstdu Here is a website with a small (AI-inspired) self-written script to fetch the CSV and compute the probabilities automatically: https://election.chstdu.us.to/