Which probability option would you choose?
Which probability option would you choose?
18
Never closes
50% for A, 50% for B
90% for A, and 10% for B
There are 100 people total. 30 of them are from group A, 70 are from group B. And group A and B are things you cannot switched in-between from.
There are two sets of probability of death for individuals in the groups:
50% for A, 50% for B
90% for A, 10% for B
You are from one of the groups, but you don’t know which group you belong to. There are equal probability for you to belong to A or B. Would you choose option 1, or option 2?
(My vote is unintentional/accident; I do not plan to vote any of the polls in this series.)
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Learn more.1.00Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
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