Will the United States become more authoritarian in 2024?
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63
Ṁ3909Mar 1
88%
chance
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This question will use The Economist's Democracy Index, resolving YES if the United States' democracy score is lower in the next report (to be published in early 2025) compared to the last report (which can be found here).
If the United States' democracy score for 2024 is the same or higher, this question resolves NO.
Other questions about authoritarianism in 2024:
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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Base rate since 2006 = 7/18 = 39%
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Economist_Democracy_Index
Trump election chance = 45-50%
I don't understand why this is at 71%
@Siebe The "data":
This is the Ecommunist, which is left-wing propaganda, and will 100% lower the index in 2024 now that papa Trump is back. You may have had a good point prior to election, though.
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