Will Pope Francis cease to be pope before the end of 2025?
Will Pope Francis cease to be pope before the end of 2025?
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Ṁ130kresolved Apr 21
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This question resolves YES if Pope Francis (Jorge Mario Bergoglio) ceases to be pope of the Roman Catholic Church for any reason before the end of 2025.
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I mean does he stop being the pope if he is dead? Doesn't he need to be stripped of the title? Or pass it to the next guy?
@Guilhermesampaiodeoliveir yes, he does, and no, he doesn't. The time from the death of a pope to the election of the next one is "sede vacante*
bought Ṁ50 NO2mo
PSA to Catholic traders not using aliases: betting here is specific grounds to be excommunicated. The Vatican does lurk on the internet.
@TimothyBandors The article you linked explicitly says that betting on markets like this is NOT grounds for excommunication under canon law.
bought Ṁ50 NO
Vote NO because I'm a fan of his. I know that's irrational ❤ but we may (must?) have hope.
bought Ṁ15 YES1y
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
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Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
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