Will China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, Penghu) before the end of 2024?
Plus
75
Ṁ11kJan 1
8%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Taiwan possesses four island groups off the coast of mainland China: Kinmen, the Matsu Islands, Wuqiu, and Penghu.
China might opt to seize one or more of these islands in the coming years, either to test American and Taiwanese resolve, as a bargaining chip, as salami tactics, or as part of an invasion or naval blockade.
Will China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands before the end of 2024?
Same question except:
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Sort by:
China is holding military drills around Taiwan. So far, drills are smaller in scale than those carried out in 2022 in response to Nancy Pelosi's visit, but this time include mock attacks on Kinmen and Matsu (Reuters). Below is a BBC map comparing drill areas according to China Central Television:
Related questions
Related questions
Will China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, Penghu) before the end of 2028?
45% chance
Will China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, Penghu) before 2030?
49% chance
Will China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, Penghu) before the end of 2026?
27% chance
Will China attempt to invade Taiwan by the end of 2027?
30% chance
Will China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, Penghu) before the end of 2027?
45% chance
Will China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, Penghu) before the end of 2025?
13% chance
Will China invade Taiwan by the end of 2024?
3% chance
If China does not invade Taiwan by 2024-12-31, will it invade Taiwan by 2030-12-31?
34% chance
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2024?
4% chance
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2029?
32% chance