1,000
3.00If you want more under/ over on stock markets : https://manifold.markets/TylerGraham/stocks-share-prop-bets-over-or-unde
We're headed to a second lower top, as always occurs with every cycle after the trend reversal.
My guess is that this market will continue to go up along with the price, as it hits $97,000 or maybe even $98,000, so I'll be watching out to reenter a lot of NO then. This is mean reversion right now and the best strategy in finance is mean reversion.
The distribution in the long-term is insane, although the 15m charts still show some room to run up.
The real crash doesn't happen until after the second lower top. As I mentioned earlier, there is a month-end and an early-week effect with bitcoin. This is lining up perfectly for a top around or before December 1, with a massive crash after that to make it clear the cycle is over.
This also lines up with the ideas I've been posting on X that two major events - the H5N1 pandemic probability being much higher than people understand and Trump's incoming tariffs - are going to kill the market with uncertainty in December. I think pretty much everything goes down in December and I've been selling calls for late Dec.
@SteveSokolowski Impressive that you predicted this specific market behaviour, it just looks like a random walk to me
@Bayesian But what will happen after December 1st will not be impressive (for this prediction.)
@DavidBolin I only have three strong beliefs on Manifold that are out of line with the markets, in this order. The rest are flexible.
Some UFOs are non-human with certainty, and the most likely cause of the now-worldwide ongoing "drone incursions" is non-human
BTC is only used for scams and, on average, will underperform the stock market from 2021 into the future
H5N1 is likely to become a public health emergency of international concern (although rules prevent it from being called that), and more likely than not to become a pandemic
Feel free to criticize me if I get any of these three wrong. Anything else is, as @Bayesian says, random noise.
Into the bear trap.
I'm back - I bought a few hours before the MSTR news.
As always happens, MSTR typically buys at the top of bubbles. Rather than making a profit on their purchases, they just bring their cost basis up, to the point now where instead of having gains of 1000% they will be underwater when the price falls below $50,000.
MSTR is a key reason why bitcoin continues to go on these bubbles, and with its buy pressure removed, we won't see this market at YES any time soon. The charts look terrible, with the 4h about to cross Hilbert lines into a downtrend for the first time since Nov 6. This will have been the second-longest Hilbert uptrend on the 4h chart in bitcoin's history.
@dlin007 This isn't all the Hilbert sines, although those could make you a profit.
If you really want to be profitable, these are the signals in this order:
CNN makes a featured report on the front page of their website or on TV (this is rare but a decisive indicator; it happened on Thursday night and on June 16, 2022 and also in November 2017)
The balance of power shows a reduction in buy pressure
UO and AD show lower peaks and lower valleys
The hilbert lines cross
The earlier in the sequence you realize what's happening the closer to the top or bottom you get in or out.
And here are the things that happen too late:
Microstrategy's buys (by the time you hear about these, bots have already ingested the news somehow, probably using models to determine if it's an MSTR buy, and cause an immediate panic)
The EMAs, MACDs, and other moving averages that CoinDesk and other people with a surface level understanding constantly refer to in their mainstream articles
The "fear and greed" indices - these are useless no matter what asset you're trading
You can still make a decent profit if you trade on or before #4. #5 and later may have a negative expected value - see the "dogecoin has golden cross" indicator just a week ago; these crosses almost always mean the opposite of what people pretend they mean.
The CNN indicator has always indicated a long-term trend reversal.
@SteveSokolowski this is all nice but i would really like is SSOK tracker ETF i could pour my money into
@dlin007 There already is one:
/SteveSokolowski/will-my-stock-trading-market-exceed
The model likely won't satisfy the market because it only made 36% so far, due to bureaucratic delays with banks and because of bugs in the surrounding code, such as crashes or buying the wrong stock. The model wasn't online often enough to make enough money.
Trading itself is pretty easy; it's getting the data and getting access to money that's hard.
@dlin007 Tip: $NVDA has seen an insane jump in confidence over the past two hours. I have no idea what the model is seeing, but I just sold 50 put contracts at $135.
@dlin007 Well, to be dead honest, he ( @SteveSokolowski ) has only been right about Bitcoin price prediction twice in his lifetime. I do want to give him that recognition for being right 2 times out say 50+ times.
1) He was right about high volume on-chain accumulation activity when bitcoin was around 42-45k before the 65k breakout.
2) Right about the recent dip at 99/98k.
In between that two specific instance of predictions, he has made 100s of bitcoin price prediction. They were all wrong.
No hard feelings, just mentioning the facts. And I love Steve, he's a great guy and I feel sorry that he lost around 1M in the tradefi episode. Good wishes, and I hope he recovers from that loss soon, maybe he already did. 🙏
@bitSanjay The problem, Sanjay, is that we're not talking on the same timeframes, and timeframes are always important in trading.
I've been consistent that bitcoin is not a good investment in the medium and long term, which is why I don't trade it. Specifically, its Sortino ratio is catastrophically poor compared to AI stocks. The asset has already had most of its gains and there isn't room for it to run anymore.
Additionally, the FTX scams removed a large portion of the population (2 million people plus several exponential multipliers due to friends and family) from the market - both by eliminating their wealth and permanently damaging bitcoin's reputation.
Thus, there's no reason to expect that "this time is different" with regards to a 60%+ drawdown to $38,000. Compared to previous bubbles, this time there is less utility, less usage, and fewer companies in the industry for the first time.
If you take my comments to say that bitcoin won't rise occasionally in the long term, then you would be mistaken. However, my guess is that bitcoin will continue to perform poorly compared to AI investments. An investment in nVidia would already have been dramatically better throughout essentially the coin's entire lifetime with a much better Sharpe and Sortino to boot, and AI stocks have SIPC protection and less fraud.
seems to me like you're missing the forest for the trees because you're consumed with jealousy @bitSanjay...we don't care about @SteveSokolowski 's batting average if his slugging percentage is this off the charts
@SteveSokolowski I agree and really respect your analyis on nVidia an AI, and I hope you're making a killing in those trades.
"I've been consistent that bitcoin is not a good investment in the medium and long term" - you may be right about medium term (6-18 months horizon). But for long-term on a 4 year horizon you're absolutely 100% wrong.
I don't consider myself a trader, but a stacker. That's probably the reason for our difference.
Bitcoiners, including myself have developed a very different strategy. We DCA on consistent basis. And so far on 4-8 yr horizon, we're all making a killing.
@bitSanjay I guess we'll just have to disagree.
4 years ago, bitcoin was worth around $60,000. Now, it's worth about $95,000. The S&P 500 has been consistently beating bitcoin for the entire decade. AI stocks have absolutely destroyed bitcoin, and they aren't even comparable in Sharpe and Sortino.
There's no way I'm ever buying bitcoins again for long term holding. The ship has sailed. 50% returns in 4 years with an 80% drawdown is a terrible investment - and that is before the absolutely massive fraud loss risks.
@SteveSokolowski Yes, I guess we have to disagree :).
Let's wait and watch and see if Trump adds Bitcoin to the National Reserve. Also, if he's going keep his promise of bring Bitcoin mining back to America.
Things might just change overnight.
@bitSanjay
The Death Of Cryptocurrency
2010: Keep The Government Away From My Secret Internet Monies.
2024: Lets Make My Internet Monies Real Money That The Government Controls.
@DistinctlySkeptical Agreed! But I think we're good till 2032. Please keep an eye on the 2028 Election Markets 👇