If Javier Milei abolishes the Central Bank of Argentina, will it cause a recession or financial crisis?
Basic
10
Ṁ136
2027
37%
chance

According to majority of economists in the IGM survey.

Otherwise resolves PROB if the Bank survives.

#️ Politics
#Economics
#Argentina
#Elections: World
#Argentina economy
#2023 Argentina election
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I would find it more interesting if we had two questions like this, none of them having "cause" in them

  • If Javier Milei abolishes the Central Bank, will Argentina enter a recession in X years?

  • If Javier Milei does not abolish the Central Bank, will Argentina enter a recession in X years?

@GustavoMafra Or, two questions: "Abolish" and "Recession", each binary. And then a joint market for the four outcomes.

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