The Republican Party swept the 2024 election, winning the presidency, all swing states, the national popular vote, the Senate, and (likely) the House.
What caused this (in particular, what caused the POTUS result)?
This market starts with 10 placeholders. Comment a reason and I'll edit it in (limit one per user). After all placeholders are taken up, I'll open it up so anyone can add answers. This market will remain open until the end of the month. After that, there will be a voting process to determine the top options.
For the vote, I will write a comment for each option, and the top 5 in terms of likes (Edit: likes minus dislikes) will resolve YES, all other options will resolve NO. If there's a tie, the tied options will resolve to %.
The vote will run for about a week and it will close at a random time. I won't bet on this market.
Reasons must refer to one specific thing, e.g. "High inflation and lack of competitive primary" is not allowed. I may N/A options that do not adhere to this rule or are too similar to another option.
Users are encouraged to persuade others in the comments section.
This is my first time running a market like this, suggestions welcome!
1,000
3.00FAQ: Why is "Because they got fewer votes" an option?
I accepted this suggestion mainly because it was funny. Now I see that it was maybe not the best idea, but nothing to do about it now.
All placeholders have been taken up. I've toggled so that anyone can add options now. Keep in mind that duplicate options or too general options will be N/A'd.
If you do not want to pay the 100M for adding an option, you can still comment a suggestion, but there is no guarantee that it will be selected.
@TheAllMemeingEye The comments will be written by me and posted after market close, and will be pinned so people know which ones to vote on. I didn't want options to win simply because they came first so the comment for it was there longer, and also, I want people to predict other users' opinions rather than be able to see what's winning and bet based on that.
The fact that these answers are very similar is precisely why yours got N/A'd. As stated in the description, I am N/Aing options that are too similar to an already existing option.
@na_pewno Already a Rogan option for Trump and Vance, so I'm N/Aing this. You could add one just for musk if you want.
@JoeandSeth This is a problem, yes, but not why Harris lost. In the 20th century when this sort of thing was less of an issue we still had comparable defeats.
@MaxHarms thought this question was about the most recent election, not arbitrary zeitgeists of the last century?
@bagelfan is the question best interpreted as "what is the sole reason that Democrats lasted the 2024 election" or "What is the primary reason that Democrats lost the 2024 election" or "what is one of the reasons that Democrats lost the 2024 election"?
@AaronSimansky 5 options will be chosen. The question is asking "What are the top 5 reasons that the Democrats lost the election".
@TheUserU2 Is this even controversial? More moderate (or moderate seeming) candidates probably would have performed better (e.g., Josh Shapiro). Nate Silver argues moderates performed better in the election: https://www.natesilver.net/p/kamala-harris-was-a-replacement-level.
Harris was described as a weak candidate before it was clear she'd running for president in 2024, notably in https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2023/11/kamala-harris-vice-presidency-2024-election-biden-age/675439/:
Ease and confidence have not been the prevailing themes of Harris’s vice presidency. Her first year on the job was defined by rhetorical blunders, staff turnover, political missteps, and a poor sense among even her allies of what, exactly, constituted her portfolio. Within months of taking office, President Joe Biden was forced to confront a public perception that Harris didn’t measure up; ultimately, the White House issued a statement insisting that Biden did, in fact, rely on his vice president as a governing partner. But Harris’s reputation has never quite recovered.
@TheUserU2 Regen worse. Supposedly the majority of purple believe their own situation is improved but the reconning is bad: https://www.axios.com/2023/08/18/americans-economy-bad-personal-finances-good
Vibes with the explanation that higher prices are attributed to inflation and raises were earned by merit.
@Enlil I agree that people tend to view the economy worse than it actually is, but I had this in mind: https://jzmazlish.substack.com/p/yes-inflation-made-the-median-voter?r=naug&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&triedRedirect=true
@bagelfan I know this is a joke answer, but... Democrats got more votes in 2016 and in 2000, so this trivially isn't why they lost.