If "software engineer" is no longer a common job title by end of 2029, and there are many former software engineers who are no longer working in that job, then I propose this should resolve NO. In this case the former software engineers are unable to sell their skilled labor for more than the minimum wage, which means the typical/average/overall pay has declined.

In this world, there might still be some people with a "software engineer" job title, but really they will be product managers, technical founders, user representatives, etc.

Absolute decline? Real decline?

Elasticities elasticities elasticities! Now if we were talking about AI burying dead people automatically, clearly an increase in undertaker productivity due to such automation would result in job destruction, because the number of dead people to bury stays roughly the same over time (barring x-risk). Demand for funerals is very inelastic to price. On the other hand, coding faster and cheaper may result in more code being purchased overall, which could even lead to job creation for programmers, in principle.

Edit: I appreciate the tip

My thought is that the number of programming jobs may go down, but the jobs that are still being done by humans will be more skilled, and so salaries will increase.

Not betting more because of long timeline and unclear resolution criteria.

Re: the timeline. I did create markets for 2025 and 2027 if you’d prefer to trade on those.

Re: the resolution criteria. I agree. If there is no decline in pay I will resolve NO. Otherwise it will be highly subjective and largely based on what economists attribute the decline to.