Will another US president be killed before 2060?
Will another US president be killed before 2060?
Plus
32
Ṁ18412059
38%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
So far, four sitting US presidents have been assassinated. Will there be a fifth death before 2060?
A president dying as collateral damage, for example in a nuclear explosion, will also count, not only direct assassinations.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Sort by:
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
Will another United States president be assassinated before the end of 2034?
17% chance
Any US president (current or former) is assassinated before 2030?
10% chance
Will any current or former president of the United States be assassinated before 2030?
16% chance
Will a sitting or former US President be killed by 2030?
17% chance
Will a U.S. President die in office before 2034?
31% chance
Will a president of the USA die while in office before the end of 2050
58% chance
Will there be another non-white President of the United States before 2060?
81% chance
Will there be an assassination of an American politician by the end of 2025?
20% chance
What will be true about at least one US president elected before 2050?
Will the US President of the 2024-2028 term die while being the President?
17% chance