Will Myanmar's junta be overthrown by the end of 2024?
Plus
55
Ṁ8207Jan 1
11%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Will resolve YES if the junta loses control of 2 of the 3 largest cities.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Sort by:
According to this map (not sure what's the source behind), the opposition armed groups now control abut half of the country after the start of Operation 1027: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Myanmar_Civil_War_(2021-present)_after_Operation_1027.png
@adssx Certainly possible this will translate into loss of major cities, but well over 50% of the population is still governed by the Tatmadaw.
Related questions
Related questions
Will Myanmar's junta be overthrown before 2026?
59% chance
Will there be a change in leadership in Myanmar before 2025?
21% chance
Will internal armed conflict in Myanmar end before 2030?
71% chance
Will China engage in offensive operations in Myanmar in 2024?
11% chance
Which of the following scenarios do you think is most likely to unfold in Myanmar by the end of 2024?
Will the government of the Central African Republic be overthrown before the end of 2024?
10% chance
At the end of the Myanmar Civil War, who will control a plurality of the population of Myanmar?
Will there be a successful coup in Africa in 2024?
29% chance
Will Niger return to civilian rule by the end of 2024?
18% chance
Will there be a coup attempt in Russia by the end of 2024?
9% chance