Will the US annex a soveign state before the end of 2050
Will the US annex a soveign state before the end of 2050
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Update 2024-23-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Only the annexation of the entire sovereign state will count as a YES resolution.
Partial annexations, such as incorporating Greenland without annexing Denmark, will not count as YES.
Update 2024-24-12 (PST): - Annexation of a new sovereign state, even if it was originally part of another state, will count as a YES resolution. (AI summary of creator comment)
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Does it have to be the whole other state or just part of it? If it's Greenland will it resolve YES since it is sovereign Danish territory?
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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