Will Commonwealth Fusion demonstrate breakeven in a fusion reactor before the end of 2025? | Manifold

Will Commonwealth Fusion demonstrate breakeven in a fusion reactor before the end of 2025?

Basic

10

Ṁ855

Dec 31

3%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Scientific breakeven, Q = 1

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It's not very likely that they will finish construction by 2025. And they will need at least a year after that to achieve Q=1. Less than 20% chance IMO.

In 2021, the SPARC reactor was planned for completion in 2025 and with a Q = 11

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