Update 2025-10-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Resolves YES if Hamas and Israel both publicly agree simultaneously, in apparent good faith, to some version of Trump's plan.
Implementation is not required for resolution.
If there is substantial ambiguity about whether an agreement counts, the market will resolve N/A.
Update 2025-10-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Modifications to Trump's plan can still resolve YES if the plan's central points remain mostly intact.
Central points (per BBC listing): 1, 2, 3, 4, 13, 16. Deals not including nearly all of these mostly intact will resolve NO or N/A.
Important but flexible: points 5, 9, 12, 15 may be modified without affecting resolution.
If the agreement is very different from the original (i.e., ambiguous whether it is Trump's plan), the market will resolve N/A.
Update 2025-10-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Point 6 is not core; modifications to it are allowed. If Point 6 is modified but most other central points are agreed to, the market can still resolve YES.
Update 2025-10-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Creator will wait to see confirmation that a deal was actually signed and review the details of the deal before resolving. Market looks likely to resolve YES at this point based on Trump's announcement.
Update 2025-10-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Creator is waiting for confirmation that a deal was actually signed and will review which specific points were agreed to before resolving, as resolution depends on whether the agreed points match the criteria outlined in previous updates.
Update 2025-10-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If Hamas refuses to fully disarm, the market will resolve NO (not N/A), as this would violate point 13, which is a central point of Trump's plan.
Update 2025-10-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Market will resolve immediately after the signing ceremony (expected within 24 hours from 2025-10-12 12:40 PDT).
Points that count: Any included in the first phase deal that is signed + any points either side seems adamant on as of the signing.
If insufficient for YES/NO, will use % resolution:
If any central points (1, 2, 3, 4, 13, 16) are points of adamant refusal → NO
Central points count as 15% each
Also-important points (5, 9, 12, 15) count as 2.5% each
% resolution = sum of all points agreed to (partial credit may be assigned)
If all central points agreed to → YES
1,000
3.00"President Trump signed a document recognizing the cease-fire and hostage-release deal between Israel and Hamas during a summit in Sharm El Sheikh, Egypt. The leaders of Egypt, Turkey and Qatar, sitting alongside Trump, also signed the document. All four countries served as mediators between Israel and Hamas. Absent from the signing table were the representatives of the warring parties, Israel and Hamas. Hamas, a U.S.-designated terrorist organization, wasn’t invited to the summit, and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declined his invitation."
lol its a "peace agreement" where a grand total of zero parties supposedly now at peace are at the signing.
@traders last extension!
Trump is on his way to Egypt, and there is to be a deal signing ceremony "in under 24 hours" (written two hours ago, at 2025-10-12 12:40 PDT; source: https://www.nbcnews.com/world/middle-east/live-blog/israel-hamas-live-updates-families-hostages-await-release-trump-travel-rcna237100).
Given previous discussion of phased negotiation plans counting as deals, I plan to resolve this market immediately after the signing ceremony. The points that will "count" towards the point by point criteria will be any that are included in the first phase deal that is signed + any points that either side seems adamant on as of the signing.
If that's not enough to reach YES or NO, I'll renege on my previous guidance and do a % resolution as follows:
If any central points are points of adamant refusal, resolution is NO
In determining a % resolution, central points (1, 2, 3, 4, 13, 16) count as 15% each. Also-important points (5, 9, 12, 15) count as 2.5% each. The % resolution will be the sum of all points agreed to. I may assign partial credit if that seems fair.
If all central points are agreed to, resolution is YES.
Obviously, many edge cases are possible. Feel free to ask about them.
Points of the plan still refer to:
@ae most sources are reporting disarmament will not be in stage one
Al jazeera says "In his remarks, Trump said that the disarmament of Hamas would be part of the second phase of the deal, with Israel maintaining that Hamas must give up its weapons."
BBC says "There are likely to be multiple points of contention during the negotiations over later phases of the deal. Hamas has previously refused to lay down its weapons, saying it would only do so once a Palestinian state had been established. The group also made no mention of disarming in its initial response to the plan last weekend, fuelling speculation that its position had not changed."
if there is nothing about disarming in stage one is that no for violating point 9?
Now, it must resolve to NO. Time is over. Please do it ASAP. Please don't extend the deadline. It's injustice and I'll be at a loss.
Hi
You may have not noticed this comment about closure and resolution date:
https://manifold.markets/ae/hamas-accepts-trumps-proposed-peace#6fpp0amrvug
@MiguelLM but it's over now. If you want yes, then go and wait until it resolves to YES. There's a reason we bet on deadlines as well. Correct me if I'm wrong.
@Tarzan if you want to bet on deadlines, this is what I have learnt so far:
1) bet on the markets where the deadline is a central part of the forecast. They often include the deadline in the title and in the description
2) there are markets with more flexible deadlines because the timeline is unknown, and for the market creator is more important to forecast the final outcome than the intermediate state at an arbitrary time. There, you have to read the description, the comments, ask upfront when you have doubts, and assume the closure date might be postponed
As this market has a lot of comments, and I know it takes a lot of time to read them all, I took the effort to scroll through the history to find the exact latest position of the author, and I shared it with you as an act of courtesy to you and to the market creator. They have >400 traders only on this market and it is impossible to reply in minutes to all of you.
@MiguelLM I really appreciate your efforts to reply to me to be very honest with you. I'm just frustrated with this market 😔. I hope you understand. I have bet so much of balance here, may be my trading mistake.
@Tarzan you are welcome! I completely understand the tone of your first message was a result of your frustration and I thank your last message.
This is just a game. We have to put things into perspective. It is a very volatile situation in a historic moment. If this uncertainity is frustrating for us, I can't imagine how hard will it be for a refugee who doesn't know yet if this long horror will really end, or a family member who is uncertain about whether the hostage release will finally happen tomorrow.
@MiguelLM I totally understand your concern and I always wished for Peace over war. But Hamas can't trust Netanyahu. He is just like them. So, it's very hard for Hamas to accept a couple of terms.
“Hamas official says disarmament ‘out of the question“
It seems that the ceasefire deal signed so far is vague, while Hamas is very public about their (un)willingness to disarm.
@ae if we reach the market’s deadline with no more news about disarmament, will it be resolved NO or extended?
The author, @ae, said:
“I consider points 1, 2, 3, 4, 13, and 16 to be central, and any deal not including nearly all of these mostly intact will lead to a NO or NA resolution. Points 5, 9, 12, and 15 are also important, but I could imagine modifications of these that might not affect resolution.”
This is my current understanding, as of today:
- Already signed and execution started: 3, 4, 5, 12,
- Likely to be signed in next agreement: 1, 2
- Not signed but already started the preparations for execution: 15, 16
- Hard: 9, 13
In my previous list of "Hard", point 9 (disarmament) was the Top1. Recent repeated estatements rejecting internation interferences make point 13 (international interim governance) quite high in the list of hard points. See example today: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/10/10/palestine-factions-refuse-foreign-guardianship-on-gaza-as-truce-takes-hold
@MiguelLM Agree, this is essentially a market on whether hamas will agree to disarm now
@brod you are right
These two should go up and down quite close to each other
https://manifold.markets/Gen/will-hamas-disarm-and-relinquish-po?r=TWlndWVsTE0
@brod But there two additional questions, prior to and after Hamas decision:
1) Before: How much will Trump’s plan move towards UN’s New York declaration
2) After: Whether the changes would qualify as “original plan with minor adjustments” vs. “major change” for the resolution of this market
A) New York Declaration version of disarmament: “hand over its weapons to the Palestinian Authority”
B) Trump’s original version: “placing weapons permanently beyond use through an agreed process of decommissioning” + “destruction of offensive infrastructure”
C) A mixed version acceptable for Hamas and Israel might be:
Offensive weapons: destruction
Defensive weapons: x years under international control, and then handed over to PA