Impact of AI: Will the number of lawyers in the U.S. decrease by 2030? | Manifold

Impact of AI: Will the number of lawyers in the U.S. decrease by 2030?

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The number of lawyers in the US has been growing at a faster rate than the overall population:

However, in 2020, 2021, and 2022, and for the first time in 100 years, the number of active lawyers in the US decreased. From 2022 to 2023, the number of active lawyers rose slightly (+0.3%). Morever, artificial intelligence might negatively impact lawyers and slow their growth.

Will the number of active lawyers in the US be lower in 2030 than in 2023 (the latest available year)?

The question will be resolved using the American Bar Association (ABA) 2030 National Lawyer Population Survey. In 2023, there were 1,331,290 active lawyers in the US.

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Of note: the median real incomes of lawyers have been declining and "Between 2008 and 2019, lawyers’ income share of the national gross domestic product fell from 1.64% to 1.32% because clients purchased lawyers’ services less often."

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